UCF
W-L: (29-26) PR = 95.9940Schedule/Results All Games
Date Opponent Conf/State (W-L, PR) Score 213 H Siena MAAC ( 1- 7, 88.3) 16- 0 214 H Siena MAAC ( 1- 7, 88.3) 13- 1 215 H Siena MAAC ( 1- 7, 88.3) 15- 0 217 H South Florida AME (30-22, 94.6) 7- 9 220 H Louisiana SB (40-27, 95.1) 4- 7 221 A Indiana B10 (22-31, 95.1) 1- 6 222 H LSU SEC (31-26, 97.0) 0-11 228 H South Florida AME (30-22, 94.6) 1- 2 228 H South Florida AME (30-22, 94.6) 2- 9 301 A Le Moyne NE ( 1- 7, 87.2) 2- 1 304 A Bethune-Cookman SWAC ( 8-10, 91.7) 12- 2 306 A Virginia Tech ACC (28-28, 95.3) 8- 1 307 H Murray State MV ( 9-13, 91.8) 4- 0 308 H Murray State MV ( 9-13, 91.8) 10- 9 311 H Miami MA (22-13, 96.4) 5- 9 313 H Oklahoma State B12 (39-22, 97.2) 12-11 314 H Oklahoma State B12 (39-22, 97.2) 6- 1 315 H Oklahoma State B12 (39-22, 97.2) 6- 5 317 A NC State ACC (34-21, 96.4) 8-14 320 A TCU B12 (32-21, 95.9) 18- 7 321 H Cal Poly BW (39-25, 95.3) 0-12 322 A TCU B12 (32-21, 95.9) 9- 1 324 A Stetson AS (20-34, 92.8) 4- 8 327 H Arizona B12 (17-36, 93.8) 11- 6 328 H Arizona B12 (17-36, 93.8) 13- 3 329 H Arizona B12 (17-36, 93.8) 3- 2 403 A West Virginia B12 (47-18, 98.1) 5- 0 404 A West Virginia B12 (47-18, 98.1) 10-11 405 A West Virginia B12 (47-18, 98.1) 5- 1 407 H Iowa B10 (34-21, 95.8) 3-12 410 H UC Davis BW (27-26, 93.9) 3- 5 411 A Kansas B12 (41-18, 97.1) 3- 6 411 A Kansas B12 (41-18, 97.1) 1- 3 414 H Jacksonville AS (29-23, 93.6) 4- 5 417 H Cincinnati B12 (38-21, 96.8) 7- 1 418 H Cincinnati B12 (38-21, 96.8) 3- 9 419 H Cincinnati B12 (38-21, 96.8) 9-11 421 A Bethune-Cookman SWAC ( 8-10, 91.7) 5- 4 424 A Utah B12 (25-26, 94.8) 12- 2 425 A Utah B12 (25-26, 94.8) 12- 4 425 A Utah B12 (25-26, 94.8) 10- 0 429 H Stetson AS (20-34, 92.8) 6- 5 501 H Arizona State B12 (38-21, 97.6) 4- 9 503 H Arizona State B12 (38-21, 97.6) 3- 6 505 A Florida Atlantic AME (28-26, 93.8) 5- 6 508 A Baylor B12 (26-27, 94.7) 8- 0 509 A Baylor B12 (26-27, 94.7) 19- 3 510 A Baylor B12 (26-27, 94.7) 7- 8 514 A Notre Dame ACC (30-22, 95.9) 10- 3 515 A Virginia ACC (38-24, 96.1) 4- 2 516 H Kansas State B12 (30-27, 96.6) 6- 5 521 H Oklahoma State B12 (39-22, 97.2) 6-12 530 A Milwaukee HL ( 9-14, 94.0) 6-13 530 A Milwaukee HL ( 9-14, 94.0) 6-13 531 A Auburn SEC (45-20, 98.9) 3- 9
PREDICTION LIST
-------------------------------------
|Real = actual goal margin |
|Pred = predicted goal margin |
|+ = slightly above prediction |
|++ = above prediction |
|+++ = well above prediction |
|- = slightly below prediction |
|-- = below prediction |
|--- = well below prediction |
|Goals* = Goals over (+) under (-) |
| prediction. N/A when ten |
| goal limit is exceeded |
|n/a = Outside division |
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Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals*
213 H Siena 16- 0 16 8 ++ 5.66
214 H Siena 13- 1 12 8 + 3.66
215 H Siena 15- 0 15 8 ++ 5.66
217 H South Florida 7- 9 -2 2 -- -4.09
220 H Louisiana 4- 7 -3 2 -- -4.59
221 A Indiana 1- 6 -5 0 -- -5.26
222 H LSU 0-11 -11 0 --- -10.66
228 H South Florida 1- 2 -1 2 - -3.09
228 H South Florida 2- 9 -7 2 --- -9.09
301 A Le Moyne 2- 1 1 8 --- -7.09
304 A Bethune-Cookman 12- 2 10 4 +++ 6.35
306 A Virginia Tech 8- 1 7 0 +++ 6.98
307 H Murray State 4- 0 4 5 -0.86
308 H Murray State 10- 9 1 5 - -3.86
311 H Miami 5- 9 -4 0 -- -4.23
313 H Oklahoma State 12-11 1 -1 1.57
314 H Oklahoma State 6- 1 5 -1 ++ 5.57
315 H Oklahoma State 6- 5 1 -1 1.57
317 A NC State 8-14 -6 -1 -- -4.94
320 A TCU 18- 7 11 -1 +++ 11.61
321 H Cal Poly 0-12 -12 1 --- -13.37
322 A TCU 9- 1 8 -1 +++ 8.61
324 A Stetson 4- 8 -4 3 --- -6.56
327 H Arizona 11- 6 5 3 + 2.15
328 H Arizona 13- 3 10 3 +++ 7.15
329 H Arizona 3- 2 1 3 -1.85
403 A West Virginia 5- 0 5 -3 +++ 7.83
404 A West Virginia 10-11 -1 -3 1.83
405 A West Virginia 5- 1 4 -3 +++ 6.83
407 H Iowa 3-12 -9 1 --- -9.84
410 H UC Davis 3- 5 -2 3 -- -4.82
411 A Kansas 3- 6 -3 -2 -1.18
411 A Kansas 1- 3 -2 -2 -0.18
414 H Jacksonville 4- 5 -1 3 -- -4.03
417 H Cincinnati 7- 1 6 0 +++ 6.10
418 H Cincinnati 3- 9 -6 0 -- -5.90
419 H Cincinnati 9-11 -2 0 -1.90
421 A Bethune-Cookman 5- 4 1 4 - -2.65
424 A Utah 12- 2 10 1 +++ 9.49
425 A Utah 12- 4 8 1 +++ 7.49
425 A Utah 10- 0 10 1 +++ 9.49
429 H Stetson 6- 5 1 4 - -2.91
501 H Arizona State 4- 9 -5 -1 -- -4.03
503 H Arizona State 3- 6 -3 -1 - -2.03
505 A Florida Atlantic 5- 6 -1 2 - -2.57
508 A Baylor 8- 0 8 1 +++ 7.40
509 A Baylor 19- 3 16 1 +++ 13.40
510 A Baylor 7- 8 -1 1 -1.60
514 A Notre Dame 10- 3 7 -1 +++ 7.57
515 A Virginia 4- 2 2 -1 + 2.78
516 H Kansas State 6- 5 1 0 0.95
521 H Oklahoma State 6-12 -6 -1 -- -5.43
530 A Milwaukee 6-13 -7 1 --- -8.35
530 A Milwaukee 6-13 -7 1 --- -8.35
531 A Auburn 3- 9 -6 -4 - -2.44
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UNDER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 222 H LSU 0-11 -11 0 --- -10.66 228 H South Florida 2- 9 -7 2 --- -9.09 301 A Le Moyne 2- 1 1 8 --- -7.09 321 H Cal Poly 0-12 -12 1 --- -13.37 324 A Stetson 4- 8 -4 3 --- -6.56 407 H Iowa 3-12 -9 1 --- -9.84 530 A Milwaukee 6-13 -7 1 --- -8.35 530 A Milwaukee 6-13 -7 1 --- -8.35 217 H South Florida 7- 9 -2 2 -- -4.09 220 H Louisiana 4- 7 -3 2 -- -4.59 221 A Indiana 1- 6 -5 0 -- -5.26 311 H Miami 5- 9 -4 0 -- -4.23 317 A NC State 8-14 -6 -1 -- -4.94 410 H UC Davis 3- 5 -2 3 -- -4.82 414 H Jacksonville 4- 5 -1 3 -- -4.03 418 H Cincinnati 3- 9 -6 0 -- -5.90 501 H Arizona State 4- 9 -5 -1 -- -4.03 521 H Oklahoma State 6-12 -6 -1 -- -5.43 228 H South Florida 1- 2 -1 2 - -3.09 308 H Murray State 10- 9 1 5 - -3.86 421 A Bethune-Cookman 5- 4 1 4 - -2.65 429 H Stetson 6- 5 1 4 - -2.91 503 H Arizona State 3- 6 -3 -1 - -2.03 505 A Florida Atlantic 5- 6 -1 2 - -2.57 531 A Auburn 3- 9 -6 -4 - -2.44 |
OVER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 304 A Bethune-Cookman 12- 2 10 4 +++ 6.35 306 A Virginia Tech 8- 1 7 0 +++ 6.98 320 A TCU 18- 7 11 -1 +++ 11.61 322 A TCU 9- 1 8 -1 +++ 8.61 328 H Arizona 13- 3 10 3 +++ 7.15 403 A West Virginia 5- 0 5 -3 +++ 7.83 405 A West Virginia 5- 1 4 -3 +++ 6.83 417 H Cincinnati 7- 1 6 0 +++ 6.10 424 A Utah 12- 2 10 1 +++ 9.49 425 A Utah 12- 4 8 1 +++ 7.49 425 A Utah 10- 0 10 1 +++ 9.49 508 A Baylor 8- 0 8 1 +++ 7.40 509 A Baylor 19- 3 16 1 +++ 13.40 514 A Notre Dame 10- 3 7 -1 +++ 7.57 213 H Siena 16- 0 16 8 ++ 5.66 215 H Siena 15- 0 15 8 ++ 5.66 314 H Oklahoma State 6- 1 5 -1 ++ 5.57 214 H Siena 13- 1 12 8 + 3.66 327 H Arizona 11- 6 5 3 + 2.15 515 A Virginia 4- 2 2 -1 + 2.78 |
division Games OnlyAverage number of games used in Games Correction = 28.92
Date Opponent (W-L PR) SCORE SAFE SAFE Home No Games SCI
Loss Win Field Correction Points
SLP SWP Advantage Factor
3 H Siena ( 1- 7, 88.3) 16- 0 -11.57 6.85 -0.68 0.53 6.50
3 H Siena ( 1- 7, 88.3) 13- 1 -11.57 6.85 -0.68 0.53 6.50
3 H Siena ( 1- 7, 88.3) 15- 0 -11.57 6.85 -0.68 0.53 6.50
3 H South Florida (30-22, 94.6) 7- 9 -5.32 13.11 -0.68 0.53 -1.58
3 H Louisiana (40-27, 95.1) 4- 7 -4.82 13.61 -0.68 0.53 -1.44
3 A Indiana (22-31, 95.1) 1- 6 -4.84 13.58 0.68 0.53 -1.10
3 H LSU (31-26, 97.0) 0-11 -2.89 15.53 -0.68 0.53 -0.94
3 H South Florida (30-22, 94.6) 1- 2 -5.32 13.11 -0.68 0.53 -1.58
3 H South Florida (30-22, 94.6) 2- 9 -5.32 13.11 -0.68 0.53 -1.58
3 A Le Moyne ( 1- 7, 87.2) 2- 1 -12.67 5.76 0.68 0.53 6.77
3 A Bethune-Cookma ( 8-10, 91.7) 12- 2 -8.23 10.20 0.68 0.53 11.43
3 A Virginia Tech (28-28, 95.3) 8- 1 -4.61 13.82 0.68 0.53 15.25
3 H Murray State ( 9-13, 91.8) 4- 0 -8.09 10.34 -0.68 0.53 10.16
3 H Murray State ( 9-13, 91.8) 10- 9 -8.09 10.34 -0.68 0.53 10.16
3 H Miami (22-13, 96.4) 5- 9 -3.46 14.97 -0.68 0.53 -1.09
3 H Oklahoma State (39-22, 97.2) 12-11 -2.66 15.77 -0.68 0.53 15.87
3 H Oklahoma State (39-22, 97.2) 6- 1 -2.66 15.77 -0.68 0.53 15.87
3 H Oklahoma State (39-22, 97.2) 6- 5 -2.66 15.77 -0.68 0.53 15.87
3 A NC State (34-21, 96.4) 8-14 -3.52 14.91 0.68 0.53 -0.75
3 A TCU (32-21, 95.9) 18- 7 -3.97 14.45 0.68 0.53 15.91
3 H Cal Poly (39-25, 95.3) 0-12 -4.60 13.83 -0.68 0.53 -1.39
3 A TCU (32-21, 95.9) 9- 1 -3.97 14.45 0.68 0.53 15.91
3 A Stetson (20-34, 92.8) 4- 8 -7.14 11.29 0.68 0.53 -1.70
3 H Arizona (17-36, 93.8) 11- 6 -6.08 12.35 -0.68 0.53 12.28
3 H Arizona (17-36, 93.8) 13- 3 -6.08 12.35 -0.68 0.53 12.28
3 H Arizona (17-36, 93.8) 3- 2 -6.08 12.35 -0.68 0.53 12.28
3 A West Virginia (47-18, 98.1) 5- 0 -1.75 16.68 0.68 0.53 18.25
3 A West Virginia (47-18, 98.1) 10-11 -1.75 16.68 0.68 0.53 -0.28
3 A West Virginia (47-18, 98.1) 5- 1 -1.75 16.68 0.68 0.53 18.25
3 H Iowa (34-21, 95.8) 3-12 -4.07 14.36 -0.68 0.53 -1.25
3 H UC Davis (27-26, 93.9) 3- 5 -6.05 12.38 -0.68 0.53 -1.77
3 A Kansas (41-18, 97.1) 3- 6 -2.76 15.66 0.68 0.53 -0.55
3 A Kansas (41-18, 97.1) 1- 3 -2.76 15.66 0.68 0.53 -0.55
3 H Jacksonville (29-23, 93.6) 4- 5 -6.26 12.17 -0.68 0.53 -1.82
3 H Cincinnati (38-21, 96.8) 7- 1 -3.13 15.29 -0.68 0.53 15.37
3 H Cincinnati (38-21, 96.8) 3- 9 -3.13 15.29 -0.68 0.53 -1.00
3 H Cincinnati (38-21, 96.8) 9-11 -3.13 15.29 -0.68 0.53 -1.00
3 A Bethune-Cookma ( 8-10, 91.7) 5- 4 -8.23 10.20 0.68 0.53 11.43
3 A Utah (25-26, 94.8) 12- 2 -5.09 13.33 0.68 0.53 14.73
3 A Utah (25-26, 94.8) 12- 4 -5.09 13.33 0.68 0.53 14.73
3 A Utah (25-26, 94.8) 10- 0 -5.09 13.33 0.68 0.53 14.73
3 H Stetson (20-34, 92.8) 6- 5 -7.14 11.29 -0.68 0.53 11.16
3 H Arizona State (38-21, 97.6) 4- 9 -2.26 16.17 -0.68 0.53 -0.77
3 H Arizona State (38-21, 97.6) 3- 6 -2.26 16.17 -0.68 0.53 -0.77
3 A Florida Atlant (28-26, 93.8) 5- 6 -6.15 12.28 0.68 0.53 -1.44
3 A Baylor (26-27, 94.7) 8- 0 -5.18 13.25 0.68 0.53 14.64
3 A Baylor (26-27, 94.7) 19- 3 -5.18 13.25 0.68 0.53 14.64
3 A Baylor (26-27, 94.7) 7- 8 -5.18 13.25 0.68 0.53 -1.18
3 A Notre Dame (30-22, 95.9) 10- 3 -4.01 14.42 0.68 0.53 15.88
3 A Virginia (38-24, 96.1) 4- 2 -3.80 14.63 0.68 0.53 16.09
3 H Kansas State (30-27, 96.6) 6- 5 -3.28 15.14 -0.68 0.53 15.21
3 H Oklahoma State (39-22, 97.2) 6-12 -2.66 15.77 -0.68 0.53 -0.88
3 A Milwaukee ( 9-14, 94.0) 6-13 -5.93 12.50 0.68 0.53 -1.38
3 A Milwaukee ( 9-14, 94.0) 6-13 -5.93 12.50 0.68 0.53 -1.38
3 A Auburn (45-20, 98.9) 3- 9 -1.03 17.40 0.68 0.53 -0.09
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355.41
|
winning pts = 384.6587 losing points = -29.2439
SCI ={(SLP or SLW) +/- home-field advantage} * Game Correction.
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| (W-L PR) = Won-loss record and power rating |
| SCORE = game score |
| SAFE Loss (SLP) = Points deducted for losing to the opponent |
| SAFE Win (SWP) = Points awarded for defeating the opponent |
| Home-field Advantage = goals deducted/awarded for site |
| No games correction = normalzation based on a ~16 game schedule |
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